I recently lited an image, no updates just cleanups, .net cache, cache and temp files, winsxs backup, saved changes and unmounted, the wim was somewhere around 500mb bigger than the original, probably due to the compression engine. Factor in some updates do not directly integrate and must run during setup, the type of Update Cleanup you use, and whether you are running in Free or Licensed mode.
I'm specifically talking about the CU updates.
When one integrates a CU into a WIM and exports to ESD, the final size of the ESD seems to be what the ESD would be minus the update plus the size of the update package.
The question is: why does it balloon like that?